Abstracts – Browse Results
Click on the titles below to expand the information about each abstract.
Viewing 8 results ...
Adams, F K (2006) Expert elicitation and Bayesian analysis of construction contract risks: an investigation. Construction Management and Economics, 24(01), 81-96.
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Subjective probabilities; elicitation techniques; Bayesian analysis; risk analysis; Delphi techniques
- ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190500310254
- Abstract:
Formal risk analysis techniques applied in managing construction project risks tend to focus on risks that lend themselves to ‘objective’ methods of economic analysis. Although subjective probabilities and Bayesian methods are applied successfully in other industries to manage ‘subjective’ risks similar to those encountered in construction contracts, very little is reported on the application of such methods for analysing risks in construction contracts. An investigation has been carried out into using subjective expert opinions and Bayesian methods in construction contract risk analysis. The elicitation of expert opinions about the risk of encountering adverse ground conditions on construction sites is examined. Prior distributions of expert opinions about the risk form the critical component in the Bayesian analysis of risk. The conclusion of this is that although construction professionals have difficulty estimating intermediate and tail values of probability distributions, elicitation techniques can be used to develop prior distributions of contract risks which, coupled with sample information on the risks, would enable the Bayesian analysis of risks. Effective strategies for systematically analysing significant individual contract risks often covered under an ‘arbitrary’ project contingency sum can now be developed to enhance the risk management efforts of contractors and construction experts.
Aibinu, A A (2006) The relationship between distribution of control, fairness and potential for dispute in the claims handling process. Construction Management and Economics, 24(01), 45-54.
Andi (2006) The importance and allocation of risks in Indonesian construction projects. Construction Management and Economics, 24(01), 69-80.
Dann, N, Hills, S and Worthing, D (2006) Assessing how organizations approach the maintenance management of listed buildings. Construction Management and Economics, 24(01), 97-104.
Dawood, N and Sriprasert, E (2006) Construction scheduling using multi-constraint and genetic algorithms approach. Construction Management and Economics, 24(01), 19-30.
Huang, Y C (2006) Graphical-based multistage scheduling method for RC buildings. Construction Management and Economics, 24(01), 5-18.
Leung, M-Y, Liu, A M M and Wong, M M-k (2006) Impact of stress-coping behaviour on estimation performance. Construction Management and Economics, 24(01), 55-67.
Mbachu, J and Nkado, R (2006) Conceptual framework for assessment of client needs and satisfaction in the building development process. Construction Management and Economics, 24(01), 31-44.